NEWS//Is COVI-19 nearly at peak?

We are reposting Bill Bishop’s February 11 in Sinocism.

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Is the outbreak closer to coming under control? New cases have officially declined for several days and the official media is in full positive energy mode trying to spread that word that while the battle is still raging victory is within reach.

Here are the data as of 6PM Tuesday Beijing time, from Caixin:

42,744 confirmed cases in China;

1017 deaths, including 974 in Hubei, 1 in Hong Kong and 1 in the Philippines;

21,675 suspected cases in China

Dr. Zhong Nanshan was cautiously optimistic in interviews with Reuters and The Global Times. Here is what he told Reuters in Coronavirus outbreak may be over in China by April:

In an exclusive interview with Reuters, Zhong Nanshan, a leading epidemiologist who won international fame for his role in combating the SARS epidemic in 2003, said the situation in some provinces was already improving, with the number of new cases declining.

Zhong, who had previously predicted an earlier peak, said the forecast was based on modeling and developments in recent days, as well as government action.

“So, we suppose maybe, the peak time may be reached at the, maybe middle or late this month, February ... and then keep a little bit plateau or something like that and, then going down,” he said...

“I hope this outbreak or this event may be over in something like April,” he said in a hospital run by Guangzhou Medical University, where 11 coronavirus patients were being treated.

Though his comments may soothe some global anxiety over the coronavirus - which has killed more than 1,000 people and seen more than 40,000 cases, almost all in China - Zhong’s previous forecast of an earlier peak turned out to be premature.

And here is the Global Times’ report on its interview with him - Outbreak may peak in mid or late-February: epidemiologist:

While some experts suggested that continuous decreasing numbers of confirmed cases show that the inflection point outside Hubei is expected to arrive in about 10 days, Zhong Nanshan, China's top epidemiologist, told the Global Times via a video call interview on Tuesday that the inflection point of the outbreak cannot be predicted now. "It may peak in mid or late-February," he said.

Let’s all hope that we are near the peak, but relaxations of quarantine and other restrictive policies may be a better tell than the official data.

Then again, the central government is clearly very concerned about the economic impact and appears to be pushing local governments to get business back up and running as fast as possible. There is the risk if that people go back to work too quickly there could be a second wave of cases. Dr. Zhang Wenhong made that point to Caixin in When Will Coronavirus Turning Point Arrive?:

According to Zhang Wenhong, leader of a Shanghai medical team working on the virus, the proportion of the country’s total cases in the province at the heart of the outbreak is still rising, reaching 81% last week as it also continues to spread in cities apart from Wuhan, Zhang said. This could also be a result of many suspected cases being confirmed as test kits become more accessible.

However Zhang warned that even as growth in the virus outside Hubei seems to be slowing, the outbreak is on track to enter a stage of second-generation local infections. This stage involves the virus spreading to people who have neither traveled to Wuhan nor been in contact with anyone who has. Moreover, as people return to work, this kind of infection will become more likely, so local governments will have to improve their screening and diagnosis capabilities, Zhang wrote.

This Caixin story also notes another expert forecast of a late February peak:

Mathematicians from the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics and Fudan University co-published an analysis of the outbreak on Wednesday that argues that under the current disease control and prevention measures, the total number of cases in the country will stop rising by the end of February.

As well as some skepticism:

But Wang Chen, director of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, said (link in Chinese) in an interview with CCTV last week that there isn’t enough reliable data yet to predict when the inflection point will come, as it still remains unclear how many people are infected presently, especially in the worst-hit areas.

Watch what the officials do, not what the official media say.